No stranger to Supertubos’ bone-crunching shorepound, Mick should be feeling very comfortable with where he’s at right now. Photo: ASP

With the holding period running October 9th to 20th and Magicseaweed calling for a four-to-six foot swell to be on tap for the opening day of the window, the penultimate leg of the world tour should see a quick start out the gates.

But with Fanning taking his first win of the year in France and further building on his incredibly consistent year so far, what are the possible world title race scenarios we could see in Portugal?

There still in fact remain five contenders for the title: Mick, Kelly, Jordy,Taj and Joel. However the chances of Taj or Jordy fighting back now are extremely slim considering Mick’s previous performances in Portugal.

According to the ASP, only Fanning can clinch the crown (and his 3rd world title) in Portugal. Here is what he’d need to happen:

If Fanning wins the event:
– Slater will need a 3rd or better to take the title decision to Hawaii.
– Smith, Burrow and Parkinson will be out of the race.

If Fanning finishes Runner-Up in Portugal:
– Slater will need a 9th or better to take the title decision to Hawaii.
– Smith will need to win the event to take the title decision to Hawaii.
– Burrow and Parkinson will be out of the race.

If Fanning finishes 3rd in Portugal:
– Slater will need a 9th or better to take the title decision to Hawaii
– Smith, Burrow and Parkinson will need to win the event to take the title decision to Hawaii.

If Fanning finishes 5th or worse in Portugal:
– The ASP World Title decision will go to Hawaii as, even with a 25th in Portugal, Slater can still win in Hawaii.

There you have it. Now all you need to do is stay tuned for the Rip Curl Pro live webcast this coming Wednesday!